The following article originally appeared as part of the 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit on RotoExperts.com. Access their free draft kit now to help with your draft preparation.
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I play in several leagues each year with a friend who I’ll refer to as “Renaldo” to keep his identity anonymous. He is very experienced in nearly every major fantasy sport, and when all is said and done, it’s a rare season that he is not at least in the running as the final weeks approach. But he doesn’t always get there in ways we expect.
You see, Renaldo is all about taking advantage of every single angle he can to win. Seriously, we’ve seen it all by now. Renaldo will employ any strategy, from streaming to loaded trades, in an effort to influence the final outcome of the league. Heck, one year when he was commish, he even changed the league scoring categories on draft day without notifying us. My rather studly team looked like a sure winner, until I realized he replaced two major categories with completely unrelated statistics.
I didn’t sit there and complain about it. That’s a loser move. Rather, I won the league.
There are many ways to get an edge, and many that won’t piss off everyone else in the league. One of my favorites is category dumping. In case you are not familiar with the term, it involves stacking numbers in every category but one, and writing off the one. Pretty simple concept to understand, but not one you want to employ blindly. Let’s look at scenarios for when you would and would not want to consider dumping categories as your draft progresses.
When to Consider Dumping
Let’s say you are 10 rounds into your draft and you suddenly realize you have minimal stolen bases on your entire team. Or maybe you haven’t selected any closers. Perhaps you look down and realize that your infield consists of free swingers Adam Dunn at 1B, Dan Uggla at 2B, Mark Reynolds at 3B, and Jhonny Peralta at SS. Or [gasp], a light bulb goes off and you realize you have all three problems!! (Don’t be too embarrassed if you do; it happens to the best of us.)
If you find yourself looking at a situation like this, you really have no choice but to dump either stolen bases, batting average, or saves at your draft. Let’s analyze all three scenarios as a mini case study.
Dumping Stolen Bases
Stolen bases is probably the easiest category to dump on offense. There are very few five or four tool players who contribute in both speed and power categories. Once you get into the double digit rounds, you will be looking mostly at SB specialists if you really want to make noise in the category. I never like to draft specialists like that. Why? Because you can make better long-term investments at such a critical time as the preseason draft.
Think about it, once the season kicks off, there are always one-dimensional speed players who emerge on the free agent wire. If that doesn’t fix your problem, just wait until injuries hit and minor leaguers get called up. Last year, speed options emerged aplenty, like Nyjer Morgan, who finally got a full-time gig after he was traded to Washington (.351 BA, 24 SBs, and 35 runs in 191 at-bats), and Rajai Davis, who was simply handed a full-time opportunity late in the season (.325 BA, 30 SBs, 46 Rs, and 42 runs batted in in 277 ABs after the All Star Break). In the wake of the Morgan trade, the Pirates called up stud-in-the-making Andrew McCutcheon, who showed that he has base skills (.283 BA, 10 home runs, 15 SBs, 30 Rs, and 31 RBIs in 279 ABs after the All Star Break) similar to what we saw a few years ago in a young Grady Sizemore.
Dumping Batting Average
I actually don’t like batting average as a fantasy category one bit (on-base percentage is where it’s at), but since most standard fantasy formats include it, you have to know how to manage it. Catching up in this category isn’t really worth the effort. After all, if you chase a bunch of high BA guys late in your draft, you will do more harm than good. Specifically, it’s very likely you will merely find empty batting average players with little power and speed. This, my friends, is an ideal category to bail on. Keep stacking power and look to deal one or two of these guys for help in BA and SBs once the season starts. There you go . . . two problems corrected.
Dumping Saves
There are two schools of thought on this category, one that says to never pay for saves at your draft, and one that says to get proven closers at all costs. The former is essentially advising you to dump this category unless you get great value late in the draft, and I can hardly argue with that notion should you find yourself in the situation described above. The problem with outright dumping saves, though, is that you still have to [hopefullly] win the waiver claim on new closers, or you have to constantly add “closers in waiting” all season, until one sticks. If you are an active, informed manager, dumping makes sense. Otherwise, start picking closers and look to dump one or both of the hitting categories instead.
Hitting vs. Pitching Categories
I do need to point out that it is generally a better practice to dump one or more of the pitching categories. Many more difference-makers emerge on the mound than on the field over the course of the year. One of the reasons is that teams can simply platoon players at various positions to make up for the loss of a hitter or fielder. You can’t do that with a SP or a closer. Pitchers are also best poised to make an immediate impact at the major league level, because their first tour around the league is typically a good one since no teams have film on them yet. And every year a superstar rookie like Tim Lincecum (circa 2007) emerges, or a guy like Dave Bush has his career-best performance. I’ve successfully dumped Ks, SVs, and Wins in the past. In some formats, I’ve even held my own by dumping one of the ratios (not recommended for inexperienced fantasy players) on draft day.
Roto vs. Head-to-Head
One nuance that must be taken into account is the difference in dumping in Rotisserie formats vs. Head-to-Head.
Dumping is tailor-made for H2H leagues, because you only need to win one more category than your opponent each week. Stack your roster in areas of strength and ignore those areas where you are too deficient to make some noise. This can go on all season and you can still win!
In Roto, dumping takes much more skill to pull off, and it often will require you to make trades in-season to make up for it. The very nature of Roto makes it nearly impossible to win if you are dead last in any category. If you have a team that is a sure thing to finish in the top two in nine of the ten overall categories, sure, you can consider dumping as the latter rounds evolve. Otherwise, start brainstorming your potential contingency plans to make up for the lack of balance across your squad. You can go for category specialists (not recommended), start working immediately on a trade, or plan to scour the wire daily until you fill the holes in your team. Any of these can work in the perfect scenario, but you need to take into account your league format, how proactive your league mates are, and how much time you have to iron out trades and review the wire on a continuous basis.
Conclusion
Category Dumping is a very valid strategy to consider at your draft, but don’t just choose to do it blindly. Stay on your toes in the middle rounds, because that’s where you can make up for team deficiencies. Otherwise, jump in the deep end of the pool and start considering how you’ll manage your way through the season with a team that starts at a disadvantage. It can be and has been done successfully, so there’s no reason you can’t make it work as well. And the crew here at RotoExperts will be on top of all of the latest developments, so check back daily for the latest advice to help you trounce on your league.