Fantasy Baseball: Middle Infielders to Watch

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As I mentioned in my recent blog post Why I Love Opening Weekend, the first week of the MLB season is always exciting and fun. This year, I decided to lay low during draft season and take a different approach. Really, most of what you read heading up to your draft is “best guess” according to what happened last year, historical numbers, spring training performances, and whatever cryptic guidance we may be given by each team’s manager.

You need that help for the draft, but often times the draft does not go as well as you hope. In many formats the last pick or two that you make are immediately expendable should someone worthy emerge as a starter or at least a significant role player. Let’s take a few minutes to look at some of the guys in the middle infield (Second Base / 2B and Shortstop / SS) who are worth your attention in the coming days and weeks.

Kelly Johnson, 2B, ARI

Starting out with the obvious after he mashed two home runs from the leadoff spot on Wednesday, I present to you Mr. Kelly Johnson. He was on quite a few sleeper lists in the preseason, under the assumption that last season was an anomaly which can be corrected. I must say, I bought in completely but only managed to snag KJ in one of my own drafts.

Why should you care about him? Well, he should be a lock for close to 15 HR and right at 10 SB with a great batting average and above average OBP. First, ignore last season’s shoddy average; it was caused by a career low BABIP and also by his playing injured for much of the season (which is often the cause for career low BABIPs). As my good friend Paul Bourdett pointed out to me on Thursday, his move to the desert and it’s batter-friendly confines should help him easily return to his mid-teens in HR power. To sweeten the deal, Chase Field also favors lefties, and the Diamondback lineup is more talented than you may think. Translated, he could also post career highs in runs and RBIs. Sounds like a great backup 2B or MI fix to me.

Ian Desmond, 2B/SS, WAS

If you’re the gambling sort, then you may want to roll the dice with one of the popular rookie sleepers in this year’s class. Desmond won the starting shortstop role out of spring training over incumbent Cristian Guzman, so opportunity is most certainly before him. How long of a leash will he get, though, with an experience veteran behind him?

Let’s put it this way, the Nationals won’t be appearing in the World Series this year, so it makes absolutely no sense to keep a low-ceiling guy in there based on experience alone. You have to throw the rookie into the deep end of the pool. Assuming he is ready for it, Desmond will deliver equal or better value to the other middle infield options you will find on the wire at this point.

Now, he is very unlikely to leap to the 20/20 range, but you should be able to count on 10/10 (maybe 10/15), with a batting average in the .280s and an OBP around .330. His K-rate concerns me the most, as he has never finished a season in minor league or major league play below 17.5%.  That puts his averages at risk, but for a waiver addition who qualifies at two shallow positions, you can live with it.

Chris Getz, 2B, KC

Here is one guy who underwhelmed in an audition with the Chicago White Sox last year. As a result, he was pretty much written off all spring, even after being traded to the Royals several weeks ago. With improving young players like Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Alberto Callaspo, and Mike Aviles all vying for playing time, it was easy to make that assumption. Then Gordon was injured (moving Callaspo, who many thought would start at 2B, to 3B), and Getz impressed the management team enough to win the starting second base gig outright.

Why is he a sleeper? Getz presents a nice mix of speed and plate patience, which helped him steal 25 bases in only 375 AB last year, after sustaining a walk rate above 10% through his minor league experience of nearly 1800 AB. I’ve seen him compared favorably to Brian Roberts, which would absolutely be a stretch at this early point of his career. But there’s no reason he can’t finish the season with over 30 SB and a shot at 80+ runs, with a batting average above .270. As an endgame roster filler, that’s cheap speed without too much collateral damage.

Everth Cabrera, SS, SD

While on the topic of cheap speed, we come to one of my favorite sleepers of all of them (and one whom I see gets almost NO respect among the fantasy community). The knocks on him are that he’s a below average fielder and his well-hit average last season was very poor (<.200). So what! The kid is young and just learning to hit at this level, so sure, there will be growing pains. But if the team leaves him on the field and gives the kid a top 3 spot in the lineup, he will approach 40 SB this year.

Let’s look at why I think that will happen. The most obvious evidence includes 73 SB and 80 runs scored in 550 AB in 2008…in single-A ball. So he dominated but it was against younger kids. He still hit .284 and got on base at a .361 clip, so Everth is clearly more than a one-trick pony. I like players who can take a walk, and Everth has never posted a walk rate of less than 9.3% in a full season of his minor or major league career. If you look at all of 2009, you will find seven game stints at A+ and AAA, followed by 103 games with the Padres. He moved up because he will be THAT good folks! Did I mention that his 2009 stats across all levels included 29 SB?

Don’t get me wrong, Cabrera is young and raw, as evidenced by his tendency to whiff over 20% of the time as well. But if he gets enough plate appearances and can keep taking walks at his typical clip, he’ll be on base around 35% of the time. That there is a wellflow of stolen base and run opportunities, no? So what if it comes with a .260-.270 batting average. He’s cheap to acquire and provides more upside than most anyone else you’ll find on the wire, the aforementioned middle infielders excluded.

And in closing, don’t believe in…

Edgar Renteria, SS, SF

Did you see that he went 5-for-5 on Wednesday against the Houston Astros, bringing him to a .727 batting average on the year (3 games in, mind you)? Wow, that’s great. I believe…just as much as I believe Prince Fielder won’t hit any bombs this year or Brian Bannister (6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3K on Thursday, April 9) has magically converted into an ace.

Renteria is remarkably consistent at 35 years old. He should finish right at or below 10 HR with maybe 8 or 9 SB and a batting average that is…well…average (~.270 hopefully, with downside). Pick him up if you’re in a uber -deep mixed or NL-only league, but don’t forget the extremely small sample size you are analyzing otherwise.

Thanks for reading this week. I’ll return next week with the next installment of whom to watch at other key positions in the early going.

One thought on “Fantasy Baseball: Middle Infielders to Watch

  1. Pingback: Tweets that mention Fantasy Baseball: Middle Infielders to Watch (my writeup on guys to keep on your radar in the early going) #Roto #SBLOG -- Topsy.com

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